Poland’s Solar Market Brief Outlook to 2035
- Jan 7
- 3 min read
Poland’s solar energy market is entering a structurally important phase of long-term growth, positioning the country among the most dynamic renewable energy markets in Europe.
According to recent analysis by GlobalData, published by pv magazine, Poland is projected to reach approximately 59.1 GW of cumulative installed solar capacity by 2035. This forecast reflects not only ambitious targets, but also a stable and predictable deployment trajectory over the next decade.
Solar Capacity Growth Forecast in Poland
GlobalData expects Poland to add between 3 GW and 4 GW of new solar capacity annually through the second half of the 2020s and into the early 2030s. If this pace is maintained, Poland is expected to exceed 30 GW of installed solar capacity by 2026, surpass 40 GW by around 2030, and cross the 50 GW mark in the early 2030s.
By 2035, the country would be less than 1 GW away from the symbolic 60 GW threshold, confirming Poland’s position as one of the largest solar markets in Central and Eastern Europe.
Solar Energy’s Role in Poland’s Renewable Mix
As solar capacity expands, its share in Poland’s renewable energy mix is expected to increase significantly. By 2035, solar power could account for nearly 65 percent of total renewable capacity in the country.
This shift reflects a broader transformation of the Polish power sector, where solar energy is evolving from a complementary technology into a central pillar of electricity generation. Falling technology costs, improved project bankability, and stronger grid integration capabilities all support this trend.
Key Drivers of Solar Market Growth
Several structural factors are driving solar market growth in Poland. Utility-scale solar projects remain the primary source of new capacity additions, supported by auction-based mechanisms under the Renewable Energy Sources Act. At the same time, distributed generation continues to expand across commercial, industrial, and residential segments.
Equally important are investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Ongoing grid modernisation projects are critical for integrating higher volumes of variable renewable generation and ensuring system stability as solar penetration increases.
Energy Transition and Declining Coal Capacity
Poland’s solar expansion is closely linked to the gradual transformation of its power generation mix. While coal still plays a significant role today, coal-fired capacity is expected to decline steadily over the next decade.
According to GlobalData, coal capacity could fall from more than 32 GW in 2024 to around 20 GW by 2035. As coal declines, solar and wind energy are expected to take on a greater role in ensuring supply security, diversification, and long-term decarbonisation.
Policy Framework and Market Visibility
Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan provides greater long-term visibility for renewable energy deployment. For investors, developers, EPC contractors, equipment suppliers, and grid service providers, this policy clarity reduces uncertainty and supports strategic planning.
Rather than being driven by short-term incentives, the Polish solar market is increasingly shaped by structural demand, grid expansion, and long-term energy security objectives.
What This Means for the European Solar Industry
For companies active in solar energy, power infrastructure, energy storage, and grid integration, Poland represents a market with scale, continuity, and long-term relevance. The projected growth to nearly 60 GW of installed solar capacity by 2035 signals sustained demand across the entire renewable energy value chain.
Early positioning, local market understanding, and alignment with grid and regulatory developments are becoming decisive factors for long-term success in Poland’s evolving energy landscape.
Source
pv magazine, “Poland projected to reach 59.1 GW of solar by 2035”
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